Outdated price expectations from the 2022–2023 peak are causing a standoff in the Naples luxury market. Sellers remain anchored to record prices from two years ago, while buyers, facing an 11-month supply of inventory, expect significant discounts. This disconnect has led to a slowdown in transactions and rising inventory.
“If a home sold at $800,000 two years ago, they think they should still get that $800,000, and unfortunately, that home could be worth $650,000 to $700,000 in today’s market,” says Mike Shoaff, a top 1% agent with RE/MAX Hallmark Realty who has worked the Naples market since 2015. “So there’s a big difference there. Sellers are unwilling to come down, and buyers are unwilling to go up. It’s almost like a standoff.”
Shoaff attributes the current 11-month supply of resale inventory and a 27% increase in average days on market—now at 886 days for luxury properties—to this pricing gap. He maintains that the slowdown is not due to a lack of buyers but to sellers’ refusal to adjust prices in line with current market conditions.
The Comparable Sales Trap
Shoaff explains that many sellers and their agents continue to use 2022–2023 comparable sales as benchmarks, despite changes in affordability, interest rates, and buyer leverage. “Every seller wants to maximize their profits,” he says. “They still have in their minds what their neighbors sold two years ago.”
This reliance on outdated comparables leads to properties lingering on the market rather than adjusting to what buyers are willing to pay. “If anything is priced right, it sells quickly,” Shoaff says. “The problem is that a lot of sellers and a lot of agents are just still overpricing.”
Shoaff notes that agents often accept inflated listings instead of advising sellers to price for current conditions, further increasing the number of unsold homes.
Buyer Behavior in a High-Inventory Market
Buyers remain active but are now more cautious and price-sensitive. “Buyers are still out there. Buyers are still looking. Buyers are on the fence right now about what to do, and it is very price sensitive,” Shoaff says. “Every buyer is out there looking for a deal.”
With 11 months of inventory, buyers feel little urgency and are unwilling to stretch for asking prices. This dynamic has shifted negotiating power to buyers, who can wait for sellers to lower prices.
Shoaff also points to the influence of media coverage on buyer sentiment. “Everything is news-driven,” he says. “When you talk to these buyers, everything happens with all these news cycles. If a lot of bad news is out there on CNN and Fox News, and a lot of doom and gloom is happening, a lot of people want to jump ship.”
This effect is especially pronounced among Naples’ retiree buyer base, who rely on retirement funds and become more cautious when economic headlines are negative. “They’re scared because they’re dealing with their retirement funds,” Shoaff explains.
Buyers’ Remorse and Contract Abandonment
Another barrier to transactions is a rise in buyers backing out of contracts during inspection periods. Shoaff attributes this to the abundance of options: “Because there’s so much inventory out there right now popping on, people get buyers’ remorse. Once they go under contract and they see a neighboring property come up that they may like better, they jump out of that contract during the inspection period.”
Shoaff says this is less about financing and more about buyers using the inspection period as a risk-free window to keep shopping. “I have not seen many things fall apart due to financial problems; that is not happening, or at least in my world,” he notes. Instead, buyers recognize their leverage and treat contracts as options, knowing another property will likely become available.
How the Standoff Might Resolve
Shoaff believes the market standoff will end in one of two ways: either sellers will eventually accept current valuations, or they will wait for demand to increase to support their price expectations.
“I think we’re just going to flatline for the next year or so,” Shoaff says. “It’s definitely going to be a more buyer’s market in the coming year.” He adds that some premium communities with limited supply may see price stability or modest appreciation, but broad market gains are unlikely until the pricing gap narrows.
Shoaff views Naples as a long-term appreciation market. “How I have seen Naples, is it’s like the S&P 500 where you have your ups and your downs, but it’s always trending upwards,” he says. “Long-term buy and hold, that’s what I would suggest for anybody looking to buy here. If you can hold it five years plus, you’re doing well.”
Strategies for Navigating the Market
Shoaff’s approach centers on realistic pricing from the beginning. With experience ranging from $10 million beachfront estates to modest manufactured homes, he prioritizes pricing discipline over chasing overly optimistic listings.
“I always did my own contracts. I always handled everything from start to finish, from the time of contract to closing, never handing it off to a transactional agent,” Shoaff says. This hands-on involvement, he believes, allows him to guide sellers through pricing decisions and market realities throughout the process.
Shoaff’s firm, RE/MAX Hallmark Realty, operates with a referral-driven business model—”90% of business is referral”—which, according to Shoaff, depends on setting realistic expectations and closing deals rather than simply accumulating listings.
The current standoff in Naples’ luxury market will persist until more sellers accept market-based pricing or buyer demand increases. Shoaff maintains that agents who emphasize pricing discipline and honest counsel will be best positioned to help clients transact in today’s environment. Whether other Naples agents follow suit will determine how quickly inventory levels return to normal and transactions pick up pace.
